A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
